Planning for influenza epidemics

Planning for epidemics--the lessons of SARS.

Timing and periodicity of influenza epidemics.

Although the annual cycle of summers and winters is a long-resolved mystery of astronomy, the annual antipodal waxing and waning of influenza epidemics is still an unresolved question in epidemiology. In 1981, R. E. Hope-Simpson, an astute British physician who maintained and analyzed detailed records of his patients and their diseases for more than three decades, observed that “Influenza outbr...

Seasonal Influenza Epidemics and El Niños

Seasonal influenza epidemics occur annually during the winter in the northern and southern hemispheres, but timing of peaks and severity vary seasonally. Low humidity, which enhances survival and transmission of influenza virus, is the major risk factor. Both El Niño and La Niña phases of El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO), which determine inter-annual variation of precipitation, are putative ...

Influenza epidemics and Spanish climatic domains

The present article proposes a climatic approach to the study of the interaction between influenza spreading and climatic and meteorological factors in different climatic domains of the Iberian Peninsula. This association can be used to help in the prevention and mitigation of influenza epidemics. A biometeorological index has been defined and applied to the epidemic periods that took place in ...

Forecasting Influenza Epidemics in Hong Kong

Recent advances in mathematical modeling and inference methodologies have enabled development of systems capable of forecasting seasonal influenza epidemics in temperate regions in real-time. However, in subtropical and tropical regions, influenza epidemics can occur throughout the year, making routine forecast of influenza more challenging. Here we develop and report forecast systems that are ...